Scientific Results

This catalogue is obtained by conducting a systematic literature review of scientific studies and reviews related to monitoring, forecasting, and simulating the inland water cycle. The analysis maps scientific expertise across research groups and classifies findings by the type of inland water studied, application focus, and geographical scope. A gap analysis will identify missing research areas and assess their relevance to policymaking.

ID ▲ Type Year Authors Title Venue/Journal DOI Research type Water System Technical Focus Abstract Link with Projects Link with Tools Related policies ID
publications-4371 article 1993 Lansing, J. Stephen and Lansing, J. Stephen and Lansing, J. Stephen and Kremer, James N. and Kremer, James N. Emergent Properties of Balinese Water Temple Networks: Coadaptation on a Rugged Fitness Landscape American Anthropologist 10.1525/aa.1993.95.1.02a00050 For over a thousand years, generations of Balinese farmers have gradually transformed the landscape of their island, clearing forests, digging irrigation canals, and terracing hillsides to enable themselves and their descendants to grow irrigated rice. Paralleling the physical system of terraces and irrigation works, the Balinese have also constructed intricate networks ofshrines and temples dedicated to agricultural deities. Ecological modeling shows that water temple networks can have macroscopic effects on the topography of the adaptive landscape, and may be representative of a class of complex adaptive systems that have evolved to manage agroecosystems. N 1984, ERIC ALDEN SMITH PUBLISHED a devastating critique of the uses ofsystems ecology and simulation modeling in anthropology. While this article is in part a defense of these methods, we do not take issue with any of Smith's conclusions. Instead, we hope to demonstrate that systems models can serve a different heuristic purpose than the naive functionalist, energy-maximization or group-selection models skillfully demolished by Smith. In particular, we hope to show that simulation models are uniquely appropriate for addressing the issues of adaptation and determinism in the development of complex social systems like the water temples of Bali. But before we turn to the uses of simulation models, it may be useful to sketch out how our approach differs from those criticized by Smith. Although simulation models have always been a rarity in anthropology, they continue to be used extensively in biology as a tool to investigate complex interactive processes. For example, we recently served on the doctoral committee of a graduate student who was interested in the growth of algae in Antarctic sea ice, a major source of fixed carbon in the Antarctic Ocean. The student built a model to study the interactive effects of processes thought to influence the growth of the algae, such as temperature, nutrient flow, and available sunlight. The result was a system of differential equations that predicted, on purely theoretical grounds, variations in the growth of algae depending on the relationships among these causal factors. The model's predictions were then compared with observations, helping the student fine-tune his understanding of the mechanistic processes that drive the growth of the algae (Arrigo 1991). However, an obvious problem in extending this kind of analysis from biology to an
publications-4372 article 1993 Shvartser, Leonid and Shvartser, Leonid and Shamir, Uri and Shamir, Uri and Feldman, Mordechai and Feldman, Mordechai Forecasting Hourly Water Demands by Pattern Recognition Approach Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(1993)119:6(611) Hourly water‐demand data is forecasted with a model based on a combination of pattern recognition and time‐series analysis. Three repeating segments are observed in the daily demand pattern: β€_x009c_rising,β€_x009d_ β€_x009c_oscillating,β€_x009d_ β€_x009c_falling,β€_x009d_ then β€_x009c_risingβ€_x009d_ again the following day. These are called β€_x009c_statesβ€_x009d_ of the demand curve, and are defined as successive states of a Markov process. The transition probabilities between states are β€_x009c_learned,β€_x009d_ and low‐order auto‐regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models fitted to each segment, using a modest amount of historical data. The model is then used to forecast hourly demands for a period of one to several days ahead. The forecast can be performed in real time, on a personal computer, with low computational requirements, at any time the system state deviates from the planned, or when new data become available. The process of model development, application, and evaluation is demonstrated on a water system in Israel.
publications-4373 article 1998 Haimes, Yacov Y. and Haimes, Yacov Y. and Matalas, N. C. and Matalas, Nicholas C. and Lambert, James H. and Lambert, James H. and Jackson, Bronwyn A. and Jackson, Bronwyn A. and Fellows, James F. R. and Fellows, James F. R. Reducing vulnerability of water supply systems to attack Journal of Infrastructure Systems 10.1061/(asce)1076-0342(1998)4:4(164) The paper reviews needs and opportunities to reduce the vulnerability of public water systems to willful attack. Water supply infrastructure, systems, and their components are described in general. The terrorist threat is described, classifying potential physical, chemical-biological, and cyber attacks to these systems. A hierarchical holographic model is introduced for multiple perspectives on the hardening of waste systems. Types of hardening are defined, including security, robustness, resilience, and redundancy. The paper concludes with recommendations and opportunities for future research into quantitative risk analysis, an adaptable template for threat assessment and hardening, pacts providing for mutual emergency aid, potential psychological impacts, economic consequences distinguished from threats to life, education and training needs, and case studies of typical systems. Overall, the paper provides a foundation for improving the assessment of the risk of willful attacks in the management of civil infrastructure systems.
publications-4374 article 2000 Todini, E. and Todini, Ezio Looped water distribution networks design using a resilience index based heuristic approach Urban Water 10.1016/s1462-0758(00)00049-2
publications-4375 article 2002 Zhou, Senlin and Zhou, S.L and McMahon, Thomas A. and McMahon, Thomas A. and Walton, Andrea and Walton, A. and Lewis, Jeffrey and Lewis, J. Forecasting operational demand for an urban water supply zone Journal of Hydrology 10.1016/s0022-1694(01)00582-0
publications-4376 article 2003 Karim, Mohammad Rezaul and Karim, Mohammad R. and Abbaszadegan, Morteza and Abbaszadegan, Morteza and LeChevallier, Mark W. and LeChevallier, Mark W. Potential for pathogen intrusion during pressure transients Journal American Water Works Association 10.1002/j.1551-8833.2003.tb10368.x Waterborne disease outbreaks and increased cases of gastrointestinal illness have raised questions about the adequacy of distribution system barriers. The expansive nature of the distribution system makes it vulnerable to contamination. In particular, pressure transients-i.e., surges or water hammer-offer opportunities for intrusion of contaminants from the external environment. This study set out to determine the occurrence of indicator microorganisms and pathogens in the vicinity of potable water pipelines and assess the potential for intrusion created by transient distribution system pressure changes. Soil and water samples were collected immediately exterior to drinking water pipelines at eight locations in six states. Samples were tested for the occurrence of total and fecal coliforms, Clostridium perfringens, Bacillus subtilis, coliphage, and enteric viruses. Indicator microorganisms and enteric viruses were detected in more than half of the samples examined. Utilities need to be aware of the potential for water quality degradation to occur during pressure transients. Study results emphasize the need to maintain an effective disinfectant residual in all parts of the distribution system and to reduce leakage to minimize the potential for microbial intrusion into potable water supplies. In addition, research should focus on gaining insight into the role of pressure transients on drinking water quality, including development of techniques to evaluate system vulnerability to negative pressure and use of microbial or other indicators to predict pathogen intrusion into the distribution system.
publications-4377 article 2005 Byer, David and Carlson, Kenneth Real-time detection of intentional chemical contamination in the distribution system Journal American Water Works Association 10.1002/j.1551-8833.2005.tb10940.x Abstract : Currently, the first casualties after an intentional contamination event will be identified by physicians or other health care providers due to the onset of symptoms well after exposure. One approach to mitigating this potential disaster includes on-line monitoring of drinking water distribution systems. Four credible threat drinking water contaminants (aldicarb, sodium arsenate, sodium cyanide, and sodium fluoroacetate) were added to tap water and analyzed at different concentrations to determine their detectability in a drinking water distribution system. Bench top analysis and on-line monitoring equipment was used to measure pH, chlorine residual, turbidity, and total organic carbon values before and after introduction of these contaminants. Results indicate that all four contaminants can be detected at relatively low concentrations. Three of the four contaminants were detected below a concentration that will cause significant health impact.
publications-4378 article 2007 Zellner, Moira and Zellner, Moira Generating Policies for Sustainable Water Use in Complex Scenarios: An Integrated Land-Use and Water-Use Model of Monroe County, Michigan Environment and Planning B-planning & Design 10.1068/b32152 Rapidly declining groundwater levels since the early 1990s have raised serious concern in Monroe County, Michigan. Hydrological studies suggest that land-use changes have caused this decline. The mechanisms linking land-use and groundwater dynamics are not clear, however. In this paper I present WULUM, the Water-Use and Land-Use Model, an agent-based model that serves as an analytical framework to understand how these processes interact to create the observed patterns of resource depletion, and to suggest policies to reverse the process. The land-use component includes the main groundwater extractors in the countyβ€”stone quarries, golf courses, farms, and households. The groundwater component includes the glacial deposits and the underlying bedrock acquifer. The behavior of water users is defined by simple rules that determine their location and consumption. The dynamics of groundwater are represented through infiltration and diffusion rules between each cell and its immediate neighbors. Initial explorations with the model showed that land-use patterns contributed significantly to groundwater declines, while eliminating quarry dewatering did not entirely solve the problem. Both low-density and high-density zoning restrictions improved aquifer conditions over medium-density development, suggesting a nonlinear relationship between intensity of residential use and groundwater levels. Moreover, of all the natural and policy variables, zoning had the greatest influence on urban settlement and therefore on resource consumption.
publications-4379 article 2008 Murray, Regan and Janke, Robert and Hart, William E. and Berry, Jonathan W. and Taxon, Tom and Uber, James G. Sensor network design of contammination warning systems: A decision framework Journal American Water Works Association 10.1002/j.1551-8833.2008.tb09777.x Contamination warning systems have been proposed as a promising approach for detecting contaminants in drinking water systems early enough to allow for the effective reduction of public health or economic consequences. A variety of modeling and optimization tools has been developed to support the design of utility‐specific contamination warning systems. However, warning system design is not a straightforward application of a software tool; it requires a series of significant decisions about the warning system—s intended nature, purpose, and use. In this article, the authors describe a decision framework that uses the threat ensemble vulnerability assessment and sensor placement optimization tool (TEVA‐SPOT) to determine sensor placement. The framework allows for the development of multiple sensor network designs that can be compared and evaluated against a standard set of criteria. TEVA‐SPOT and the decision framework have been applied to several large water systems; one of those utility examples is included here.
publications-4380 article 2008 Hart, William E. and Berry, Jonathan W. and Berry, Jonathan W. and Riesen, Lee Ann and Berry, Jonathan W. and Hart, William Eugene and Watson, Jean-Paul and Phillips, Cynthia Ann and Phillips, Cynthia Ann and Phillips, Cynthia A. and Murray, Regan and Boman, Erik G. and Watson, Jean-Paul and Watson, Jean-Paul The TEVA-SPOT Toolkit for Drinking Water Contaminant Warning System Design 10.1061/40976(316)513 We present the TEVA-SPOT Toolkit, a sensor placement optimization tool developed within the USEPA TEVA program. The TEVA-SPOT Toolkit provides a sensor placement framework that facilitates research in sensor placement optimization and enables the practical application of sensor placement solvers to real-world CWS design applications. This paper provides an overview of its key features, and then illustrates how this tool can be flexibly applied to solve a variety of different types of sensor placement problems.