Scientific Results

This catalogue is obtained by conducting a systematic literature review of scientific studies and reviews related to monitoring, forecasting, and simulating the inland water cycle. The analysis maps scientific expertise across research groups and classifies findings by the type of inland water studied, application focus, and geographical scope. A gap analysis will identify missing research areas and assess their relevance to policymaking.

ID â–² Type Year Authors Title Venue/Journal DOI Research type Water System Technical Focus Abstract Link with Projects Link with Tools Related policies ID
publications-4411 article 2009 Fox, Clare and Fox, C. and McIntosh, Brian S. and McIntosh, Brian S. and Jeffrey, Paul and Jeffrey, Paul Classifying households for water demand forecasting using physical property characteristics Land Use Policy 10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.08.004
publications-4412 article 2009 Schleich, Joachim and Schleich, Joachim and Hillenbrand, Thomas and Hillenbrand, Thomas Determinants of residential water demand in Germany Ecological Economics 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.11.012 In this paper we econometrically analyze the impact of several economic, environmental and social determinants for the average per capita demand for water and sewage in about 600 water supply areas in Germany. Besides prices, income and household size, we also consider the effects of population age, the share of wells, and rainfall and temperature during the summer months on water demand. We also attempt to explain regional differences in per capita residential water consumption, which is currently about 30 \% lower in the new federal states than in the old states. Our estimate for the price elasticity of -0.229 suggests that the response of residential water demand in Germany is rather inelastic, but no significant difference could be found between both regions. In contrast, the income elasticity in the new states is found to be 0.685 which is more than double that of the old states. Differences in prices and income alone explain the largest part of the current gap in residential water use between the two regions. Our results further suggest that household size, the share of wells and summer rainfall have a negative impact on water demand. In contrast, higher age appears to be associated with higher water use. We also find (weak) evidence for an impact of rainfall but not of temperature on residential water use. Our findings imply that future research should include analyses of household- level data to further explore the effects of socio-economic determinants, and analyses of panel data to adequately study the effects of climate change on residential water use.
publications-4413 article 2009 Praskievicz, Sarah and Praskievicz, Sarah and Chang, Heejun and Chang, Heejun Identifying the Relationships Between Urban Water Consumption and Weather Variables in Seoul, Korea Physical Geography 10.2747/0272-3646.30.4.324 As anthropogenic climate change threatens the reliability of urban water supplies, it is essential to build understanding of the relationships between weather and water consumption. We used daily and monthly data from 2002 to 2007 to conduct a statistical analysis of how seasonal water use in Seoul, South Korea is affected by weather variables. The Pearson, Kendall, and Spearman tests indicated that all weather variables were significantly correlated with per capita water use at most timescales, with mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and daylight length positively correlated, and precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloud cover showing an inverse relation with water use. Once the influence of maximum temperature is controlled, water consumption is only significantly associated with wind speed and daylight length, as indicated by the partial correlation coefficient values. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression models explain between 39 and 61\% of the variance in seasonal water use, indi...
publications-4414 article 2009 Aksela, Kia and Aksela, K. and Aksela, Matti and Aksela, M. and Vahala, Riku and Vahala, Riku Leakage detection in a real distribution network using a SOM Urban Water Journal 10.1080/15730620802673079 One great challenge for waterworks is effective leakage detection. This paper presents a method based on the self-organising map for leakage detection in a water distribution network. The data used for training and validating the test results consist of vectors of the flow meter readings and knowledge of reported leak locations. The most important factor facilitating the self-organising-map-based modelling of leaks is the developed leak function. The results of the experiments presented show that the model trained on flow data can detect leaks in a defined distribution network area.
publications-4415 article 2009 Kang, Doosun and Kang, Doosun and Lansey, Kevin and Lansey, Kevin E Real-time demand estimation and confidence limit analysis for water distribution systems Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 10.1061/(asce)hy.1943-7900.0000086 A real-time estimation of water distribution system state variables such as nodal pressures and chlorine concentrations can lead to savings in time and money and provide better customer service. While a good knowledge of nodal demands is prerequisite for pressure and water quality prediction, little effort has been placed in real-time demand estimation. This study presents a real-time demand estimation method using field measurement provided by supervisory control and data acquisition systems. For real-time demand estimation, a recursive state estimator based on weighted least-squares scheme and Kalman filter are applied. Furthermore, based on estimated demands, real-time nodal pressures and chlorine concentrations are predicted. The uncertainties in demand estimates and predicted state variables are quantified in terms of confidence limits. The approximate methods such as first-order second-moment analysis and Latin hypercube sampling are used for uncertainty quantification and verified by Monte Carlo simulation. Application to a real network with synthetically generated data gives good demand estimations and reliable predictions of nodal pressure and chlorine concentration. Alternative measurement data sets are compared to assess the value of measurement types for demand estimation. With the defined measurement error magnitudes, pipe flow data are significantly more important than pressure head measurements in estimating demands with a high degree of confidence.
publications-4416 article 2009 Murray, Regan and Hart, William E. and Phillips, Cynthia A. and Berry, Jonathan W. and Boman, Erik G. and Carr, Robert D. and Riesen, Lee Ann and Watson, Jean-Paul and Haxton, Terra and Herrmann, Jonathan G. and Janke, Robert and Gray, George M. and Taxon, Thomas N. and Uber, James G. and Morley, Kevin M. US Environmental Protection Agency Uses Operations Research to Reduce Contamination Risks in Drinking Water Interfaces 10.1287/inte.1080.0415 The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the lead federal agency for the security of drinking water in the United States. The agency is responsible for providing information and technical assistance to the more than 50,000 water utilities across the country. The distributed physical layout of drinking-water utilities makes them inherently vulnerable to contamination incidents caused by terrorists. To counter this threat, the EPA is using operations research to design, test, and deploy contamination warning systems (CWSs) that rapidly detect the presence of contaminants in drinking water. We developed a software tool to optimize the design process, published a decision-making process to assist utilities in applying the tool, pilot-tested the tool on nine large water utilities, and provided training and technical assistance to a larger group of utilities. We formed a collaborative team of industry, academia, and government to critique our approach and share CWS deployment experiences. Our work has demonstrated that a CWS is a cost-effective, timely, and capable method of detecting a broad range of contaminants. Widespread application of these new systems will significantly reduce the risks associated with catastrophic contamination incidents: the median estimated fatalities reduction for the nine utilities already studied is 48 percent; the corresponding economic-impact reduction is over $19 billion. Because of this operations research program, online monitoring programs, such as a CWS, are now the accepted technology for reducing contamination risks in drinking water.
publications-4417 article 2010 Teunis, Peter and Teunis, Peter and Xu, Minhua and Xu, M. and Xu, Minhua and Fleming, Kala K. and Fleming, Kala and Yang, Jian and Yang, Jingjing and Yang, J. and Yang, J. and Yang, Jian and Moe, Christine L. and Moe, Christine L. and LeChevallier, Mark W. and LeChevallier, M. W. and LeChevallier, Mark W. Enteric Virus Infection Risk from Intrusion of Sewage into a Drinking Water Distribution Network Environmental Science & Technology 10.1021/es101266k Contaminants from the soil surrounding drinking water distribution systems are thought to not enter the drinking water when sufficient internal pressure is maintained. Pressure transients may cause short intervals of negative pressure, and the soil near drinking water pipes often contains fecal material due to the proximity of sewage lines, so that a pressure event may cause intrusion of pathogens. This paper presents a risk model for predicting intrusion and dilution of viruses and their transport to consumers. Random entry and dilution of virus was simulated by embedding the hydraulic model into a Monte Carlo simulation. Special attention was given to adjusting for the coincidence of virus presence and use of tap water, as independently occurring short-term events within the longer interval that the virus is predicted to travel in any branch of the distribution system. The probability that a consumer drinks water contaminated with virus is small, but when this happens the virus concentration tends to be...
publications-4418 article 2010 Xu, Jianhua and Small, Mitchell J. and Fischbeck, Paul S. and VanBriesen, Jeanne M. Integrating Location Models with Bayesian Analysis to Inform Decision Making Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000026 In the present work, we locate sensors in water distribution networks and make inferences on the presence of contamination events based on sensor signals. We fully consider the imperfection of sensors, which means that sensors do provide false positive and false negative signals, and we propose a two-stage model by combining a facility location model with Bayesian networks to (1) identify optimal sensors locations and (2) infer the probability of the occurrence of a contamination event and the possible contamination source based on sensor signals, the probability of a contamination event being detected by the sensors given that there is a contamination event, and the probability of detecting a contamination event given that there is actually no such event (overall false positive rate). This two-stage model can also be used to construct the trade-offs between the number of sensors and the power (the false negative and false positive rates) of individual sensors while guaranteeing the performance (the proba...
publications-4419 article 2011 Grafton, R. Quentin and Grafton, R. Quentin and Ward, Michael B. and Ward, Michael B. and To, Hang and To, Hang and Kompas, Tom and Kompas, Tom Determinants of residential water consumption: Evidence and analysis from a 10-country household survey Water Resources Research 10.1029/2010wr009685 [1]Household survey data for 10 countries are used to quantify and test the importance of price and nonprice factors on residential water demand and investigate complementarities between household water-saving behaviors and the average volumetric price of water. Results show (1) the average volumetric price of water is an important predictor of differences in residential consumption in models that include household characteristics, water-saving devices, attitudinal characteristics and environmental concerns as explanatory variables; (2) of all water-saving devices, only a low volume/dual-flush toilet has a statistically significant and negative effect on water consumption; and (3) environmental concerns have a statistically significant effect on some self-reported water-saving behaviors. While price-based approaches are espoused to promote economic efficiency, our findings stress that volumetric water pricing is also one of the most effective policy levers available to regulate household water consumption.
publications-4420 article 2013 Browne, Alison and Browne, Alison and Medd, Will and Medd, Will and Anderson, B. and Anderson, Ben Developing novel approaches to tracking domestic water demand under uncertainty - A reflection on the "up scaling" of social science approaches in the United Kingdom Water Resources Management 10.1007/s11269-012-0117-y Climate change, socio-demographic change and changing patterns of ordinary consumption are creating new and unpredictable pressures on urban water resources in the UK. While demand management is currently offered as a first option for managing supply/demand deficit, the uncertainties around demand and its’ potential trajectories are problematic for water resources research, planning and policy. In this article we review the ways in which particular branches of social science come together to offer a model of ‘distributed demand’ that helps explain these current and future uncertainties. We also identify potential strategies for tracking where the drivers of change for demand may lie. Rather than suggest an alternative ‘demand forecasting’ technique, we propose methodological approaches that ‘stretch out’ and ‘scale up’ proxy measures of demand to inform water resources planning and policy. These proxy measurements could act as ‘indictors of change’ to water demand at a population level that could then be used to inform research and policy strategies. We conclude by arguing for the need to recognise the co-production of demand futures and supply trajectories.