Scientific Results

This catalogue is obtained by conducting a systematic literature review of scientific studies and reviews related to monitoring, forecasting, and simulating the inland water cycle. The analysis maps scientific expertise across research groups and classifies findings by the type of inland water studied, application focus, and geographical scope. A gap analysis will identify missing research areas and assess their relevance to policymaking.

ID â–² Type Year Authors Title Venue/Journal DOI Research type Water System Technical Focus Abstract Link with Projects Link with Tools Related policies ID
publications-4351 article 2008 Sanctis, Annamaria E. De and Sanctis, A. E. De and Boccelli, Dominic L. and Boccelli, Dominic L. and Shang, Feifei and Shang, Feng and Uber, James G. and Uber, James G. Probabilistic Approach to Characterize Contamination Sources with Imperfect Sensors 10.1061/40976(316)512 Sensor-based contamination warning systems are being developed to detect intentional intrusion events and provide information on day-to-day performance of water distribution systems. Once a contamination warning system has detected contamination at one or more sensor locations, remedial actions should apply methods to identify the possible source locations. Current research on contamination source identification assumes that the information on contamination detection comes from perfect sensors. This assumption ignores the possibility of false positives (treating them as "true" events) and false negatives (treating every negative as though no event has occurred), which can presumably degrade effectiveness of remedial actions, and result in severe effects on public health. This research studies the impacts of imperfect sensor measurements (false positive or negative readings) on the contamination source identification. A probabilistic approach based on Bayes' theorem is applied to estimate the probability of each node in the water distribution system being a contamination source. Specifically, the probability of a paired location and time being a potential source is updated based on: 1) single or multiple sensor signals, which are dependent on the hydraulic connectivity determined through a flow path analysis model, and 2) the true and false reading information, which is dependent on background water quality and sensor behavior. Hence, the probabilistic state of a possible source can be iteratively modified in real-time using an inference system that combines the previous knowledge and information from every new sensor reading in the network. A simulation study using a network with a hypothetical sensor system is presented to illustrate the time varying probabilities associated with the candidate contamination sources.
publications-4352 article 2008 Milly, P. C. D. and Milly, P. C. D. and Milly, P. C. D. and Betancourt, Julio L. and Betancourt, Julio L. and Falkenmark, Malin and Falkenmark, Malin and Hirsch, Robert M. and Hirsch, Robert M. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Stouffer, Ronald J. Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? Science 10.1126/science.1151915 Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.
publications-4353 article 2009 Grayman, Walter M. and Grayman, Walter M. and Murray, Regan and Murray, Regan and Savić, Dragan and Savic, Dragan Effects of Redesign of Water Systems for Security and Water Quality Factors 10.1061/41036(342)49 Water distribution systems are typically designed based on hydraulic and cost considerations. In the United States, most urban water systems are looped systems with large pressure zones that serve customers in regions of different elevation. In the United Kingdom, water distribution systems are frequently further subdivided into zones of several thousand connections called district metering areas (DMAs) in order to track and control water leakage. In two case studies, starting with existing large looped water system designs, the current systems are redesigned to: (1) approximate a typical DMA design; and (2) provide additional control and isolation capability in order to improve the water security of the system. The systems are then compared in terms of four metrics: (1) fire flow; (2) water age; (3) water security; and (4) reliability. Though the results of the analysis may not necessarily be generalized beyond the case study examples, the methodology provides a mechanism for evaluating alternative water system designs, and provides insight into the effects of water security criteria on system design.
publications-4354 article 2010 Arbués, Fernando and Arbués, Fernando and Villanúa, Inmaculada and Villanúa, Inmaculada and Ortí, Ramón Barberán and Barberán, Ramón Household size and residential water demand: an empirical approach* Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2009.00479.x The effectiveness of pricing policies depends on the price elasticity of consumption. It is well documented that residential demand for water is influenced by heterogeneity associated with differences in the size of the household and socioeconomic characteristics. In this paper, we focus on household size. Our initial hypothesis is that users’ sensitivity to changes in price is different depending on the number of household members. To this end, we carry out an empirical estimation of urban water demand in Zaragoza (Spain) distinguishing between households with different sizes using data at the individual level. As far as we are aware, this approach to urban residential water demand is new in the literature. The analysis suggests that all households are sensitive to prices regardless of size. A more relevant finding is that small households are more sensitive to price changes.
publications-4355 article 2013 Nguyen, Khoi and Nguyen, Khoi Anh and Nguyen, Khoi and Nguyen, Khoi and Nguyen, Khoi Anh and Zhang, Hong and Zhang, Hong and Stewart, Rodney Anthony and Stewart, Rodney Anthony Development of an intelligent model to categorise residential water end use events Journal of Hydro-environment Research 10.1016/j.jher.2013.02.004 Abstract The aim of this study was to disaggregate water flow data collected from high resolution smart water meters into different water end use categories. The data was obtained from a sample of 252 residential dwellings located within South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. An integrated approach was used, combining high resolution water meters, remote data transfer loggers, household water appliance audits and a self-reported household water use diary. Disaggregating water flow traces into a registry of end use events (e.g. shower, clothes washer, etc.) is predominately a complex pattern matching problem, which requires a comparison between presented patterns and those contained with a large registry of categorised end use events. Water flow data collected directly from water meters includes both single (e.g. shower event occurring alone) and combined events (i.e. an event which comprises of several overlapped single events). To identify these former mentioned single events, a hybrid combination of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and the Dynamic Time Warping algorithm (DTW) provided the most feasible and accurate approach available. Additional end use event physical context algorithms have been developed to aid accurate end use event categorisation. This paper firstly presents a thorough discussion on the single water end use event analysis process developed and its internal validation with a testing set. This is followed by the application of the developed approach on three independent households to examine its degree of accuracy in disaggregating two weeks of residential flow data into a repository of residential water end use events. Future stages of algorithm development and testing is discussed in the final section.
publications-4356 article 2013 Perelman, Lina and Ostfeld, Avi Operation of remote mobile sensors for security of drinking water distribution systems. Water Research 10.1016/j.watres.2013.04.048
publications-4357 article 2013 Filatova, Tatiana and Filatova, Tatiana and Verburg, Peter H. and Verburg, Peter H. and Parker, Dawn C. and Parker, Dawn C. and Stannard, Carol Ann and Stannard, Carol Ann Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems Environmental Modelling and Software 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.03.017 Departing from the comprehensive reviews carried out in the field, we identify the key challenges that agent-based methodology faces when modeling coupled socio-ecological systems. Focusing primarily on the papers presented in this thematic issue, we review progress in spatial agent-based models along the lines of four methodological challenges: (1) design and parameterizing of agent decision models, (2) verification, validation and sensitivity analysis, (3) integration of socio-demographic, ecological, and biophysical models, and (4) spatial representation. Based on this we critically reflect on the future work that is required to make agent-based modeling widely accepted as a tool to support the real world policy. Progress of agent-based methodology in modeling coupled socio-ecological systems.Key methodological challenges for ABM.Societal issues and critical reflection on the prospects of ABM.
publications-4358 article 2014 Pérez, Ramón Almela and Pérez, Ramon and Sanz, Gerard and Sanz, Gerard and Puig, Vicenç and Puig, Vicenç and Quevedo, Joseba and Quevedo, Joseba and Escofet, Miquel Àngel Cugueró and Escofet, Miquel Àngel Cugueró and Nejjari, Fatiha and Nejjari, Fatiha and Meseguer, Jordi and Meseguer, Jordi and Cembraño, Gabriela and Cembrano, Gabriela and Tur, Josep M. Mirats and Tur, Josep M. Mirats and Sarrate, Ramón and Sarrate, Ramon Leak Localization in Water Networks: A Model-Based Methodology Using Pressure Sensors Applied to a Real Network in Barcelona [Applications of Control] IEEE Control Systems Magazine 10.1109/mcs.2014.2320336 The efficient distribution of water is a subject of major concern for water utilities and authorities [1]. While some leaks in water distribution networks (WDNs) are unavoidable, one of the main challenges in improving the efficiency of drinking water networks is to minimize leaks. Leaks can cause significant economic losses in fluid transportation and extra costs for the final consumer due to the waste of energy and chemicals in water treatment plants. Leaks may also damage infrastructure and cause third-party damage and health risks. In many WDNs, losses due to leakage are estimated to account up to 30\% of the total amount of extracted water [2]; a very important issue in a world struggling to satisfy water demands of a growing population.
publications-4359 article 2015 Makki, Anas A. and Makki, Anas Ahmad and Stewart, Rodney Anthony and Stewart, Rodney Anthony and Beal, Cara and Beal, Cara and Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak and Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak Novel bottom-up urban water demand forecasting model:Revealing the determinants, drivers and predictors of residential indoor end-use consumption Resources Conservation and Recycling 10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.11.009 The purpose of this comprehensive study was to explore the principal determinants of six residential indoor water end-use consumption categories at the household scale (i.e. namely clothes washer, shower, toilet, tap, dishwasher, and bath), and to find an overarching research design and approach for building a residential indoor water end-use demand forecasting model. A mixed method research design was followed to collect both quantitative and qualitative data from 210 households with a total of 557 occupants located in SEQ, Australia, utilising high resolution smart water metering technology, questionnaire surveys, diaries, and household water stock inventory audits. The principal determinants, main drivers, and predictors of residential indoor water consumption for each end-use category were revealed, and forecasting models were developed this study. This was achieved utilising an array of statistical techniques for each of the six end-use consumption categories. Cluster analysis and dummy coding were used to prepare the data for analysis and modelling. Subsequently, independent t-test and independent one-way ANOVA extended into a series of bootstrapped regression models were used to explore the principal determinants of consumption. Successively, a series of Pearson's Chi-Square tests was used to reveal the main drivers of higher water consumption and to determine alternative sets of consumption predictors. Lastly, independent factorial ANOVA extended into a series of bootstrapped multiple regression models was used for the development of alternative forecasting models. Key findings showed that the usage physical characteristics and the demographic and household makeup characteristics are the most significant determinants of all six end-use consumption categories. Further, the appliances/fixtures physical characteristics are significant determinants of all end-use consumption categories except the bath end-use category. Moreover, the socio-demographic characteristics are significant determinants of all end-use consumption categories except the tap and toilet end-use categories. Results also demonstrated that the main drivers of higher end-use water consumption were households with higher frequency and/or longer end-use events which are most likely to be those larger family households with teenagers and children, with higher income, predominantly working occupants, and/or higher educational level. Moreover, a total of 14 forecasting model alternatives for all six end-use consumption categories, as well as three total indoor bottom-up forecasting model alternatives were developed in this study. All of the developed forecasting model alternatives demonstrated strong statistical power, significance of fit, met the generalisation statistical criteria, and were cross-validated utilising an independent validation data set. The paper concludes with a discussion on the most significant determinants, drivers and predictors of water end-use consumption, and outlines the key implications of the research to enhanced urban water planning and policy design.
publications-4360 article 2015 Shafiee, M. Ehsan and Shafiee, M. Ehsan and Berglund, Emily Zechman and Berglund, Emily Zechman Real-Time Guidance for Hydrant Flushing Using Sensor-Hydrant Decision Trees Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000475 AbstractA utility may detect contaminant in a water distribution network through water quality sensor information, which indicates that a biological pathogen or chemical contaminant is present in the network. A utility manager should identify actions that can be taken to protect public health, and flushing a contaminant by opening a set of hydrants can be an effective response action. Hydrants should be selected and timed to flush the contaminant; however, accurately ascertaining the characteristics of the contaminant source may be impossible, which creates difficulties in developing a hydrant flushing strategy. This research develops a decision-making approach that is designed to select hydrant flushing strategies in response to sensor activations and does not require information about the characteristics of the contaminant source. A sensor-hydrant decision tree is introduced to provide a library of rules for opening and closing hydrants based on the order of activated sensors. Sensor-hydrant decision tr...