| publications-1491 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2019 |
Davide Zanchettin , Claudia Timmreck , Matthew Toohey , Johann H. Jungclaus , Matthias Bittner , Stephan J. Lorenz , Angelo Rubino |
Clarifying the Relative Role of Forcing Uncertainties and Initial-Condition Unknowns in Spreading the Climate Response to Volcanic Eruptions |
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10.1029/2018gl081018 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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AbstractRadiative forcing from volcanic aerosol impacts surface temperatures; however, the background climate state also affects the response. A key question thus concerns whether constraining forcing estimates is more important than constraining initial conditions for accurate simulation and attribution of posteruption climate anomalies. Here we test whether different realistic volcanic forcing magnitudes for the 1815 Tambora eruption yield distinguishable ensemble surface temperature responses. We perform a cluster analysis on a superensemble of climate simulations including three 30‐member ensembles using the same set of initial conditions but different volcanic forcings based on uncertainty estimates. Results clarify how forcing uncertainties can overwhelm initial‐condition spread in boreal summer due to strong direct radiative impact, while the effect of initial conditions predominate in winter, when dynamics contribute to large ensemble spread. In our setup, current uncertainties affecting reconstruction‐simulation comparisons prevent conclusions about the magnitude of the Tambora eruption and its relation to the “year without summer.” |
603557 |
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| publications-1492 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2017 |
Johann H. Jungclaus , et al. |
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations |
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10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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Abstract. The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data). |
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| publications-1493 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2019 |
Amzad H. Laskar , Rahul Peethambaran , Getachew A. Adnew , Thomas Röckmann |
Measurement of 18 O 18 O and 17 O 18 O in atmospheric O 2 using the 253 Ultra mass spectrometer and applications to stratospheric and tropospheric air samples |
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10.1002/rcm.8434 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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RationaleThe doubly substituted isotopologues (e.g., 18O18O, 17O18O) in atmospheric O2 are potential tracers for ozone photochemistry and atmospheric temperatures. Their low abundances and isobaric interference are the major analytical challenges. The 253 Ultra high‐resolution stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer is suitable for resolving isobaric interferences.MethodsO2 from air is purified using gas chromatography on a packed column filled with molecular sieve 5 Å and cooled to −78°C. The δ17O, δ18O, Δ17O, Δ35 and Δ36 values are measured on the extracted O2 with the 253 Ultra at medium mass resolution (M/ΔM ~10000) using Faraday detectors for the singly substituted isotopologues and ion counters for the doubly substituted isotopologues.ResultsInterferences from isobars, mainly 35Cl for 17O18O and H35Cl and 36Ar for 18O18O, are sufficiently resolved to enable high‐precision determination of Δ35 and Δ36. The Δ35 and Δ36 values of O2 after photochemical isotope equilibration at −63°C and heating to 850°C agree with the theoretical prediction. The stratospheric Δ35 and Δ36 values are close to isotopic equilibrium at the ambient temperatures. However, the values for tropospheric O2 differ from those expected at equilibrium.ConclusionsThe 253 Ultra allows interference‐free clumped isotope measurements of O2 at medium mass resolution. The Δ35 and Δ36 signatures in atmospheric O2 are mainly governed by O3 photochemistry, temperature and atmospheric transport. Tropospheric O2 is isotopically well mixed and retains a significant stratospheric signature. |
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| publications-1494 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2018 |
Emma Leedham Elvidge , Harald Bönisch , Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer , Andreas Engel , Paul J. Fraser , Eileen Gallacher , Ray Langenfelds , Jens Mühle |
Evaluation of stratospheric age of air from CF<sub>4</sub>, C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>, C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub>, CHF<sub>3</sub>, HFC-125, HFC-227ea and SF<sub>6</sub>; implications for the calculations of halocarbon lifetimes, fractional release factors and ozone depletion potentials |
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10.5194/acp-18-3369-2018 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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Abstract. In a changing climate, potential stratospheric circulation changes require long-term monitoring. Stratospheric trace gas measurements are often used as a proxy for stratospheric circulation changes via the mean age of air values derived from them. In this study, we investigated five potential age of air tracers – the perfluorocarbons CF4, C2F6 and C3F8 and the hydrofluorocarbons CHF3 (HFC-23) and HFC-125 – and compare them to the traditional tracer SF6 and a (relatively) shorter-lived species, HFC-227ea. A detailed uncertainty analysis was performed on mean ages derived from these new tracers to allow us to confidently compare their efficacy as age tracers to the existing tracer, SF6. Our results showed that uncertainties associated with the mean age derived from these new age tracers are similar to those derived from SF6, suggesting that these alternative compounds are suitable in this respect for use as age tracers. Independent verification of the suitability of these age tracers is provided by a comparison between samples analysed at the University of East Anglia and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. All five tracers give younger mean ages than SF6, a discrepancy that increases with increasing mean age. Our findings qualitatively support recent work that suggests that the stratospheric lifetime of SF6 is significantly less than the previous estimate of 3200 years. The impact of these younger mean ages on three policy-relevant parameters – stratospheric lifetimes, fractional release factors (FRFs) and ozone depletion potentials – is investigated in combination with a recently improved methodology to calculate FRFs. Updates to previous estimations for these parameters are provided. |
603557 |
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| publications-1495 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2018 |
Silvia Viciani , Alessio Montori , Antonio Chiarugi , Francesco D’Amato |
A Portable Quantum Cascade Laser Spectrometer for Atmospheric Measurements of Carbon Monoxide |
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10.3390/s18072380 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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Trace gas concentration measurements in the stratosphere and troposphere are critically required as inputs to constrain climate models. For this purpose, measurement campaigns on stratospheric aircraft and balloons are being carried out all over the world, each one involving sensors which are tailored for the specific gas and environmental conditions. This paper describes an automated, portable, mid-infrared quantum cascade laser spectrometer, for in situ carbon monoxide mixing ratio measurements in the stratosphere and troposphere. The instrument was designed to be versatile, suitable for easy installation on different platforms and capable of operating completely unattended, without the presence of an operator, not only during one flight but for the whole period of a campaign. The spectrometer features a small size (80 × 25 × 41 cm3), light weight (23 kg) and low power consumption (85 W typical), without being pressurized and without the need of calibration on the ground or during in-flight operation. The device was tested in the laboratory and in-field during a research campaign carried out in Nepal in summer 2017, onboard the stratospheric aircraft M55 Geophysica. The instrument worked extremely well, without external maintenance during all flights, proving an in-flight sensitivity of 1–2 ppbV with a time resolution of 1 s. |
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| publications-1496 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2019 |
Bärbel Vogel , Rolf Müller , Gebhard Günther , Reinhold Spang , Sreeharsha Hanumanthu , Dan Li , Martin Riese , Gabriele P. Stiller |
Lagrangian simulations of the transport of young air masses to the top of the Asian monsoon anticyclone and into the tropical pipe |
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10.5194/acp-19-6007-2019 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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Abstract. We have performed backward trajectory calculations and simulations with the three-dimensional Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for two succeeding monsoon seasons using artificial tracers of air mass origin. With these tracers we trace back the origin of young air masses (age <6 months) at the top of the Asian monsoon anticyclone and of air masses within the tropical pipe (6 months < age <18 months) during summer 2008. The occurrence of young air masses (<6 months) at the top of the Asian monsoon anticyclone up to ∼460 K is in agreement with satellite measurements of chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument. HCFC-22 can be considered as a regional tracer for continental eastern Asia and the Middle East as it is mainly emitted in this region. Our findings show that the transport of air masses from boundary layer sources in the region of the Asian monsoon into the tropical pipe occurs in three distinct steps. First, very fast uplift in “a convective range” transports air masses up to 360 K potential temperature within a few days. Second, air masses are uplifted from about 360 K up to 460 K within “an upward spiralling range” within a few months. The large-scale upward spiral extends from northern Africa to the western Pacific. The air masses are transported upwards by diabatic heating with a rate of up to 1–1.5 K per day, implying strong vertical transport above the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Third, transport of air masses occurs within the tropical pipe up to 550 K associated with the large-scale Brewer–Dobson circulation within ∼1 year. In the upward spiralling range, air masses are uplifted by diabatic heating across the (lapse rate) tropopause, which does not act as a transport barrier, in contrast to the extratropical tropopause. Further, in the upward spiralling range air masses from inside the Asian monsoon anticyclone are mixed with air masses convectively uplifted outside the core of the Asian monsoon anticyclone in the tropical adjacent regions. Moreover, the vertical transport of air masses from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the tropical pipe is weak in terms of transported air masses compared to the transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the northern extratropical lower stratosphere. Air masses from the Asian monsoon anticyclone (India/China) contribute a minor fraction to the composition of air within the tropical pipe at 550 K (6 %), and the major fractions are from Southeast Asia (16 %) and the tropical Pacific (15 %). |
603557 |
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| publications-1497 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2018 |
Alvaro de la Cámara , Marta Abalos , Peter Hitchcock , Natalia Calvo , Rolando R. Garcia |
Response of Arctic ozone to sudden stratospheric warmings |
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10.5194/acp-18-16499-2018 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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Abstract. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the main source of intra-seasonal and interannual variability in the extratropical stratosphere. The profound alterations to the stratospheric circulation that accompany such events produce rapid changes in the atmospheric composition. The goal of this study is to deepen our understanding of the dynamics that control changes of Arctic ozone during the life cycle of SSWs, providing a quantitative analysis of advective transport and mixing. We use output from four ensemble members (60 years each) of the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 4 performed for the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative and also use reanalysis and satellite data for validation purposes. The composite evolution of ozone displays positive mixing ratio anomalies of up to 0.5–0.6 ppmv above 550 K (∼ 50 hPa) around the central warming date and negative anomalies below (−0.2 to −0.3 ppmv), consistently in observations, reanalysis, and the model. Our analysis shows a clear temporal offset between ozone eddy transport and diffusive ozone fluxes. The initial changes in ozone are mainly driven by isentropic eddy fluxes linked to enhanced wave drag responsible for the SSW. The recovery of climatological values in the aftermath of SSWs is slower in the lower than in the upper stratosphere and is driven by the competing effects of cross-isentropic motions (which work towards the recovery) and isentropic irreversible mixing (which delays the recovery). These features are enhanced in strength and duration during sufficiently deep SSWs, particularly those followed by polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. It is found that SSW-induced ozone concentration anomalies below 600 K (∼ 40 hPa), as well as total column estimates, persist around 1 month longer in PJO than in non-PJO warmings. |
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| publications-1498 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2018 |
Kévin Lamy , Thierry Portafaix , Béatrice Josse , Colette Brogniez , Sophie Godin-Beekmann , et al. |
Ultraviolet Radiation modelling using output from the ChemistryClimate Model Initiative |
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10.5194/acp-2018-525 |
Uncategorized |
Uncategorized |
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Abstract. We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon from the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only clear-sky UVI. We compared the UVI climatologies obtained from CCMI and TUV against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI and TUV and ground-based measurements ranged between −4 % and 11 %. We calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in UVI in 2100 (of 2–4 %) in the tropical belt (30° N–30° S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3 % decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher UV indices are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5 % for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9 % for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, the same signal is observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally, we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on UVI as total column does. |
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| publications-1499 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2019 |
Matthias Nützel , Aurelien Podglajen , Hella Garny , Felix Ploeger |
Quantification of water vapour transport from the Asian monsoon to the stratosphere |
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10.5194/acp-2019-169 |
Uncategorized |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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Abstract. Numerous studies have presented evidence that the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone substantially influences the distribution of trace gases – including water vapour – in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (e.g. Santee et al., 2017). Stratospheric water vapour in turn, is strongly affecting surface climate (cf. e.g. Solomon et al., 2010). Here, we analyse the characteristics of water vapour transport from the upper troposphere in the Asian monsoon region to the stratosphere employing a multiannual simulation with the chemistry-transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere). This simulation is driven by meteorological data from ERA-Interim and features a water vapour tagging that allows us to assess the contributions of different upper tropospheric source regions to the stratospheric water vapour budget. Our results complement the analysis of air mass transport through the Asian monsoon anticyclone by Ploeger et al. (2017). The results show that the transport characteristics for water vapour are mainly determined by the bulk mass transport from the Asian monsoon region. Further, we find that, although the relative contribution from the Asian monsoon region to water vapour in the deep tropics is rather small (average peak contribution of 14 % at 450 K), the Asian monsoon region is very efficient in transporting water vapour to this region (when judged according to its comparatively small spatial extent). With respect to the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, the Asian monsoon region is much more impactful and efficient regarding water vapour transport than e.g. the North American monsoon region (averaged maximum contributions at 400 K of 29 % vs. 6.4 %). |
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| publications-1500 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2019 |
Cameron D. Rae , James Keeble , Peter Hitchcock , John A. Pyle |
Prescribing Zonally Asymmetric Ozone Climatologies in Climate Models: Performance Compared to a Chemistry‐Climate Model |
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10.1029/2018ms001478 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Precipitation & Ecological Systems |
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AbstractThree different methods of specifying ozone in an atmosphere‐only version of the HadGEM3‐A global circulation model are compared to the coupled chemistry configuration of this model. These methods include a specified zonal‐mean ozone climatology, a specified 3‐D ozone climatology, and a calculated‐asymmetry scheme in which a specified zonal‐mean ozone field is adapted online to be consistent with dynamically produced zonal asymmetries. These simulations all use identical boundary conditions and, by construction, have the same climatological zonal‐mean ozone, that of the coupled chemistry configuration of the model. Prescribing ozone, regardless of scheme, results in a simulation which is 3–4 times faster than the coupled chemistry‐climate model (CCM). Prescribing climatological zonal asymmetries leads to a vortex which is the correct intensity but which is systematically displaced over regions with lower prescribed ozone. When zonal asymmetries in ozone are free to evolve interactively with model dynamics, the modeled wintertime stratospheric vortex shape and mean sea level pressure patterns closely resemble that produced by the full CCM in both hemispheres, in terms of statistically significant differences. Further, we separate out the two distinct pathways by which zonal ozone asymmetries influence modeled dynamics. We present this interactive‐ozone zonal‐asymmetry scheme as an inexpensive tool for accurately modeling the impacts of dynamically consistent ozone fields as seen in a CCM which ultimately influence mean sea level pressure and tropospheric circulation (particularly during wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, when ozone asymmetries are generally largest), without the computational burden of simulating interactive chemistry. |
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