ID:
publications-1491
Type:
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE
Year:
2019
Authors:
Davide Zanchettin , Claudia Timmreck , Matthew Toohey , Johann H. Jungclaus , Matthias Bittner , Stephan J. Lorenz , Angelo Rubino
Title:
Clarifying the Relative Role of Forcing Uncertainties and Initial-Condition Unknowns in Spreading the Climate Response to Volcanic Eruptions
Venue/Journal:
DOI:
10.1029/2018gl081018
Research type:
Simulation & Modeling
Water System:
Precipitation & Ecological Systems
Technical Focus:
Abstract:
AbstractRadiative forcing from volcanic aerosol impacts surface temperatures; however, the background climate state also affects the response. A key question thus concerns whether constraining forcing estimates is more important than constraining initial conditions for accurate simulation and attribution of posteruption climate anomalies. Here we test whether different realistic volcanic forcing magnitudes for the 1815 Tambora eruption yield distinguishable ensemble surface temperature responses. We perform a cluster analysis on a superensemble of climate simulations including three 30âmember ensembles using the same set of initial conditions but different volcanic forcings based on uncertainty estimates. Results clarify how forcing uncertainties can overwhelm initialâcondition spread in boreal summer due to strong direct radiative impact, while the effect of initial conditions predominate in winter, when dynamics contribute to large ensemble spread. In our setup, current uncertainties affecting reconstructionâsimulation comparisons prevent conclusions about the magnitude of the Tambora eruption and its relation to the âyear without summer.â
Link with Projects:
603557
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