Scientific Results

This catalogue is obtained by conducting a systematic literature review of scientific studies and reviews related to monitoring, forecasting, and simulating the inland water cycle. The analysis maps scientific expertise across research groups and classifies findings by the type of inland water studied, application focus, and geographical scope. A gap analysis will identify missing research areas and assess their relevance to policymaking.

ID â–Č Type Year Authors Title Venue/Journal DOI Research type Water System Technical Focus Abstract Link with Projects Link with Tools Related policies ID
publications-851 PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE 2015 Samer Talozi Towards a water–energy–food nexus policy: realizing the blue and green virtual water of agriculture in Jordan 10.1080/07900627.2015.1040544 AI & Machine Learning Hydropower Dams & reservoirs No abstract available 295271
publications-852 2014 R. Gladstone , M. SchĂ€fer , T. Zwinger , Y. Gong , T. Strozzi , R. Mottram , F. Boberg , J. C. Moore Importance of basal processes in simulations of a surging Svalbard outlet glacier 10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014 Simulation & Modeling Hydropower Dams & reservoirs Abstract. The outlet glacier of Basin 3 (B3) of Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, is one of the fastest outlet glaciers in Svalbard, and shows dramatic changes since 1995. In addition to previously observed seasonal summer speed-up associated with the melt season, the winter speed of B3 has accelerated approximately fivefold since 1995. We use the Elmer/Ice full-Stokes model for ice dynamics to infer spatial distributions of basal drag for the winter seasons of 1995, 2008 and 2011. This "inverse" method is based on minimising discrepancy between modelled and observed surface velocities, using satellite remotely sensed velocity fields. We generate steady-state temperature distributions for 1995 and 2011. Frictional heating caused by basal sliding contributes significantly to basal temperatures of the B3 outlet glacier, with heat advection (a longer-timescale process than frictional heating) also being important in the steady state. We present a sensitivity experiment consisting of transient simulations under present-day forcing to demonstrate that using a temporally fixed basal drag field obtained through inversion can lead to thickness change errors of the order of 2 m year−1. Hence it is essential to incorporate the evolution of basal processes in future projections of the evolution of B3. Informed by a combination of our inverse method results and previous studies, we hypothesise a system of processes and feedbacks involving till deformation and basal hydrology to explain both the seasonal accelerations (short residence time pooling of meltwater at the ice–till interface) and the ongoing interannual speed-up (gradual penetration of water into the till, reducing till strength). 299035
publications-853 2014 M. SchÀfer , F. Gillet-Chaulet , R. Gladstone , R. Pettersson , V. A. Pohjola , T. Strozzi , T. Zwinger Assessment of heat sources on the control of fast flow of Vestfonna ice cap, Svalbard 10.5194/tc-8-1951-2014 Uncategorized River Basins Abstract. Understanding the response of fast flowing ice streams or outlet glaciers to changing climate is crucial in order to make reliable projections of sea level change over the coming decades. Motion of fast outlet glaciers occurs largely through basal motion governed by physical processes at the glacier bed, which are not yet fully understood. Various subglacial mechanisms have been suggested for fast flow but common to most of the suggested processes is the requirement of presence of liquid water, and thus temperate conditions. We use a combination of modelling, field, and remote observations in order to study links between different heat sources, the thermal regime and basal sliding in fast flowing areas on Vestfonna ice cap. A special emphasis lies on Franklinbreen, a fast flowing outlet glacier which has been observed to accelerate recently. We use the ice flow model Elmer/Ice including a Weertman type sliding law and a Robin inverse method to infer basal friction parameters from observed surface velocities. Firn heating, i.e. latent heat release through percolation of melt water, is included in our model; its parameterisation is calibrated with the temperature record of a deep borehole. We found that strain heating is negligible, whereas friction heating is identified as one possible trigger for the onset of fast flow. Firn heating is a significant heat source in the central thick and slow flowing area of the ice cap and the essential driver behind the ongoing fast flow in all outlets. Our findings suggest a possible scenario of the onset and maintenance of fast flow on the Vestfonna ice cap based on thermal processes and emphasise the role of latent heat released through refreezing of percolating melt water for fast flow. However, these processes cannot yet be captured in a temporally evolving sliding law. In order to simulate correctly fast flowing outlet glaciers, ice flow models not only need to account fully for all heat sources, but also need to incorporate a sliding law that is not solely based on the basal temperature, but also on hydrology and/or sediment physics. 299035
publications-854 PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE 2014 M. E. Weber , P. U. Clark , G. Kuhn , A. Timmermann , D. Sprenk , R. Gladstone , X. Zhang , G. Lohmann , L. Menviel , M. O. Chikamoto , T. Friedrich , Millennial-scale variability in Antarctic ice-sheet discharge during the last deglaciation 10.1038/nature13397 Uncategorized River Basins No abstract available 299035
publications-855 PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE 2015 Yan Liu , John C. Moore , Xiao Cheng , Rupert M. Gladstone , Jeremy N. Bassis , Hongxing Liu , Jiahong Wen , Fengming Hui Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves 10.1073/pnas.1415137112 Uncategorized River Basins SignificanceThe floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet (“ice shelves”) help to hold back the flow of the grounded parts, determining the contribution to global sea level rise. Using satellite images, we measured, for the first time, all icebergs larger than 1 km2calving from the entire Antarctic coastline, and the state of health of all the ice shelves. Some large ice shelves are growing while many smaller ice shelves are shrinking. We find high rates of iceberg calving from Antarctic ice shelves that are undergoing basal melt-induced thinning, which suggests the fate of ice shelves may be more sensitive to ocean forcing than previously thought. 299035
publications-856 PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE 2016 Xylar S. Asay-Davis , Stephen L. Cornford , GaĂ«l Durand , Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi , Rupert M. Gladstone , G. Hilmar Gudmundsson , Tore Hattermann , Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1) 10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016 Predictive Analytics Precipitation & Ecological Systems Abstract. Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet–ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models. 299035
publications-857 2015 S. L. Cornford , D. F. Martin , A. J. Payne , E. G. Ng , A. M. Le Brocq , R. M. Gladstone , T. L. Edwards , S. R. Shannon , C. Agosta , M. R. van den Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate 10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 Uncategorized Uncategorized Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. 299035
publications-858 PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE 2014 Mark O. Cuthbert , Gail M. Ashley A Spring Forward for Hominin Evolution in East Africa 10.1371/journal.pone.0107358 Simulation & Modeling Groundwater No abstract available 299091
publications-859 PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE 2014 H. Roshan , M.O. Cuthbert , M.S. Andersen , R.I. Acworth Local thermal non-equilibrium in sediments: Implications for temperature dynamics and the use of heat as a tracer 10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.08.002 Predictive Analytics Precipitation & Ecological Systems No abstract available 299091
publications-860 PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE 2014 M. O. Cuthbert Straight thinking about groundwater recession 10.1002/2013wr014060 Data Management & Analytics Precipitation & Ecological Systems AbstractWhile in catchment and hillslope hydrology a more nuanced approach is now taken to streamflow recession analysis, in the context of major aquifers it is commonly still assumed that the groundwater head recession rate will take exponential form, an idea originally proposed in the 19th Century. However it is shown here that, in early times, the groundwater head recession in a major aquifer should take an almost straight line form with a rate approximately equal to the long‐term recharge rate divided by the aquifer storage coefficient. The length of this phase can be estimated from an analytical expression derived in the paper which depends on the aquifer diffusivity, length scale, and the position of the monitoring point. A transitional phase then leads to an exponential phase after some critical time which is independent of the position of the monitoring point. Major aquifers in a state of periodic quasi‐steady state are expected to have rates of groundwater flux recession which deviate little from the average rate of groundwater recharge. Where quasi‐exponential groundwater declines are observed in nature, their form may be diagnostic of particular types of aquifer properties and/or boundary effects, such as proximity to drainage boundaries, variations in transmissivity with hydraulic head, storage changes due to pumping, nonequilibrium flow at a range of spatial and temporal scales, and variations in specific yield with depth. Recession analysis has applicability to a range of groundwater problems and is powerful way of gaining insight into the hydrologic functioning of an aquifer. 299091