| publications-681 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2013 |
P. B. Holden , N. R. Edwards , D. Gerten , S. Schaphoff |
A model-based constraint on CO<sub>2</sub> fertilisation |
|
10.5194/bg-10-339-2013 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Wastewater Treatment Plants |
|
Abstract. We derive a constraint on the strength of CO2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a "top-down" approach, calibrating Earth system model parameters constrained by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilisation in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO2 enrichment experiments. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorporation of a land use change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE Earth system model. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations, we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration change since the preindustrial period. We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial values is very likely (90% confidence) to exceed 20%, with a most likely value of 40–60%. It is important to note that we do not represent all of the possible contributing mechanisms to the terrestrial sink. The missing processes are subsumed into our calibration of CO2 fertilisation, which therefore represents the combined effect of CO2 fertilisation and additional missing processes. If the missing processes are a net sink then our estimate represents an upper bound. We derive calibrated estimates of carbon fluxes that are consistent with existing estimates. The present-day land–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −0.7 GTC yr−1 (likely, 66% confidence, in the range 0.4 to −1.7 GTC yr−1). The present-day ocean–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated to be −2.3 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range −1.8 to −2.7 GTC yr−1). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO2 fertilisation and climate sinks) to be 66 GTC, likely to lie in the range 0 to 128 GTC. |
265170 |
|
|
|
| publications-682 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2011 |
Popp, A., Dietrich, J.P., Lotze-Campen, H., Klein, D., Bauer, N., Krause, M., Beringer, T., Gerten, D., Edenhofer, O. |
The potential contribution of bioenergy to climate change mitigation including its costs and side effects. |
|
10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034017 |
Triple bottom line assessment |
Natural Water Bodies |
|
No abstract available |
265170 |
|
|
|
| publications-683 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2012 |
Popp A., Krause M., Dietrich J., Lotze-Campen, H., Leimbach M., Beringer, T., Bauer N. |
Additional CO2 emissions from land use change – forest conservation as a precondition for sustainable production of second generation bioenergy. |
|
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.11.004 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Water Distribution Networks |
|
No abstract available |
265170 |
|
|
|
| publications-684 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2011 |
Neil Edwards |
Mitigation: Plausible mitigation targets |
|
10.1038/nclimate1267 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Water Distribution Networks |
|
No abstract available |
265170 |
|
|
|
| publications-685 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2012 |
Schmitz, C., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., Dietrich, J.P., Bodirsky, B., Krause, M., Weindl, I. |
Trading more Food - Implications for Land Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and the Food System |
|
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.013 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Water Distribution Networks |
|
No abstract available |
265170 |
|
|
|
| publications-686 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2011 |
Heyder, U., Schaphoff, S., Gerten, D., Lucht, W. |
Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere |
|
10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034036 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Water Distribution Networks |
|
No abstract available |
265170 |
|
|
|
| publications-687 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2012 |
Carlos Mario Gómez Gómez , Carlos Dionisio Pérez Blanco |
Do drought management plans reduce drought risk? A risk assessment model for a Mediterranean river basin |
|
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.01.008 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Water Distribution Networks |
|
No abstract available |
265213 |
|
|
|
| publications-688 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2014 |
Carrera L., Standardi G., Bosello F., Mysiak J. |
Assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of a flood event through the integration of spatial and computable general equilibrium modelling |
|
10.2139/ssrn.2505925 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Water Distribution Networks |
|
No abstract available |
265213 |
|
|
|
| publications-689 |
OTHER |
|
Gómez C.M., Pérez C.D., Villar A. |
El riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la agricultura: una aplicación a las cuencas del Guadalquivir y del Segura |
|
|
Data Management & Analytics |
Irrigation Systems |
|
No abstract available |
265213 |
|
|
|
| publications-690 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2013 |
Pérez Blanco C.D., Gómez Gómez C.M. |
Insuring water: A practical risk management option in water scarce and drought prone regions? |
|
10.2166/wp.2013.131 |
Uncategorized |
Water Distribution Networks |
|
Recurrent water deficits in various arid and semi-arid Mediterranean basins are largely covered by illegal groundwater abstractions uncontrolled by the water authorities. Aquifers thus play the role of buffer stocks and are used by farmers as a reliable, although informal, insurance system. This has led to continuous groundwater depletion and increased scarcity and drought risk over the last few decades. An effective solution to this problem requires the replacement of this spontaneous, informal and uncoordinated insurance scheme with a formal and planned system that can be coordinated with the objective of reducing overexploitation. In this paper we develop a methodology to estimate the fair risk premium and the potential water savings associated with drought insurance for irrigated agriculture. This method is illustrated with its application to the Campo de Cartagena Agricultural District in the Segura River Basin (Spain). Results show that although the potential for illegal abstractions is high (9.5 hm3/year), the cost of the insurance system is ten times lower than the amount that risk-averse farmers are willing to pay for water security. This information may serve as the starting point for the design of a drought insurance system able to cope with other relevant institutional challenges. |
265213 |
|
|
|
