Scientific Results

This catalogue is obtained by conducting a systematic literature review of scientific studies and reviews related to monitoring, forecasting, and simulating the inland water cycle. The analysis maps scientific expertise across research groups and classifies findings by the type of inland water studied, application focus, and geographical scope. A gap analysis will identify missing research areas and assess their relevance to policymaking.

ID ▲	Type	Year	Authors	Title	Venue/Journal	DOI	Abstract
publications-4701	article	1999	Banavar, Jayanth R. and Banavar, Jayanth R. and Maritan, Amos and Maritan, Amos and Rinaldo, Andrea and Rinaldo, Andrea	Size and form in efficient transportation networks	Nature	10.1038/20144	Many biological processes, from cellular metabolism to population dynamics, are characterized by allometric scaling (power-law) relationships between size and rate1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. An outstanding question is whether typical allometric scaling relationshipsβ€”the power-law dependence of a biological rate on body massβ€”can be understood by considering the general features of branching networks serving a particular volume. Distributed networks in nature stem from the need for effective connectivity11, and occur both in biological systems such as cardiovascular and respiratory networks1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and plant vascular and root systems1,9,10, and in inanimate systems such as the drainage network of river basins12. Here we derive a general relationship between size and flow rates in arbitrary networks with local connectivity. Our theory accounts in a general way for the quarter-power allometric scaling of living organisms1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, recently derived8 under specific assumptions for particular network geometries. It also predicts scaling relations applicable to all efficient transportation networks, which we verify from observational data on the river drainage basins. Allometric scaling is therefore shown to originate from the general features of networks irrespective of dynamical or geometric assumptions.
publications-4702	article	2000	McKay, Michael D. and McKay, Michael D. and Beckman, Richard J. and Beckman, Richard J. and Conover, W. J. and Conover, W. J.	A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code	Technometrics	10.2307/1271432	Two types of sampling plans are examined as alternatives to simple random sampling in Monte Carlo studies. These plans are shown to be improvements over simple random sampling with respect to variance for a class of estimators which includes the sample mean and the empirical distribution function.
publications-4703	article	2000	Andersen, Johannes and Andersen, Johannes and Powell, Roger and Powell, Roger	Implicit state-estimation technique for water network monitoring	Urban Water	10.1016/s1462-0758(00)00050-9
publications-4704	article	2000	Smalley, Jane and Smalley, J. Bryan and Minsker, Barbara and Minsker, Barbara S. and Goldberg, David E. and Goldberg, David E.	Risk-based in situ bioremediation design using a noisy genetic algorithm.	Water Resources Research	10.1029/2000wr900191	Risk-based corrective action (RBCA) is rapidly becoming the method of choice for remediating contaminated groundwater. In this paper, a management model is presented that simultaneously predicts risk and proposes cost-effective options for reducing risk to acceptable levels under conditions of uncertainty. The model combines a noisy genetic algorithm with a numerical fate and transport model and an exposure and risk assessment model. The noisy genetic algorithm uses sampling from parameter distributions to assess the performance of candidate designs. Results from an application to a site from the literature show that the noisy genetic algorithm is capable of identifying highly reliable designs from a small number of samples, a significant advantage for computationally intensive groundwater management models. For the site considered, time-dependent costs associated with monitoring and the remedial system were significant, illustrating the potential importance of allowing variable cleanup lengths and a realistic cost function.
publications-4705	article	2000	Deininger, Rolf A. and LiterΓ΅thy, PΓ©ter and Bartram, Jamie	Security of public water supplies		10.1007/978-94-011-4241-0	Foreword. Acknowledgements. Indicators of Drinking Water Quality in the Americas R.A. Deininger. Future Perspectives and International Cooperation J. Bartram. International Instrument for Prevention, Control and Reduction of Water Related Diseases A. Pinter, R. Enderlein. Upgrading Public Water Supplies H. Bartel. Risk Management to Provide Safe Drinking Water R.M. Clark. Early Warning Systems on the Rhine and Elbe in Germany R.-D. Wilken, et al. Early Warning System for Chemical Spill on the Ohio River W.M. Grayman, et al. Early Warning System on the Danube River G. Pinter. Integrating Physical, Chemical and Biological Monitoring M. Thomas. Trace Metals in Drinking Water: Sources and Effects J.O. Nriagu, M.-J. Kim. Prevention of Lead in Drinking Water R.A. Deininger, E.V. Bernstam. Organic Micropollutants in Drinking Water Resources P. Literathy. Non-polar Micropollutants in Water Resources I. Liska. Microbial Quality Issues for Drinking Water E.E. Geldreich. Microbiological Safety of Water Supplies M. Kadar. Impact of the Distribution System on Water Quality: A UK Perspective I. Walker. Maintaining a Disinfectant Residual in the Distribution System R.A. Deininger. Privatization of Water Supplies C. Chefdeville. Pharmaceuticals in Sewage, Surface and Drinking Water in Germany R.-D. Wilken, et al. Sabotage of Public Water Supply Systems R.A. Deininger, P.G. Meier. Subject Index.
publications-4706	article	2001	Cohen, Reuven and Cohen, Reuven and Erez, Keren and Erez, Keren and benβ€Avraham, Daniel and ben-Avraham, Daniel and Havlin, Shlomo and Havlin, Shlomo	Breakdown of the internet under intentional attack.	Physical Review Letters	10.1103/physrevlett.86.3682	We study the tolerance of random networks to intentional attack, whereby a fraction $p$ of the most connected sites is removed. We focus on scale-free networks, having connectivity distribution $P(k)\ensuremath{\sim}{k}^{\ensuremath{-}\ensuremath{\alpha}}$, and use percolation theory to study analytically and numerically the critical fraction ${p}_{c}$ needed for the disintegration of the network, as well as the size of the largest connected cluster. We find that even networks with $\ensuremath{\alpha}\ensuremath{\le}3$, known to be resilient to random removal of sites, are sensitive to intentional attack. We also argue that, near criticality, the average distance between sites in the spanning (largest) cluster scales with its mass, $M$, as $\sqrt{M}$, rather than as ${log}_{k}M$, as expected for random networks away from criticality.
publications-4707	article	2001	Kleiner, Yehuda and Kleiner, Yehuda and Rajani, Balvant and Rajani, Balvant	Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: statistical models	Urban Water	10.1016/s1462-0758(01)00033-4	Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive (although not exhaustive) overview of a large body of work carried out in the last 20 years to quantify the structural deterioration of water mains by analysing historical performance data. The physical mechanisms that lead to pipe failure often require data that are not readily available and are costly to obtain. Thus, physical models may currently be justified only for major transmission water mains, where the cost of failure is significant, whereas statistical models, which can be applied with various levels of input data, are useful for distribution water mains. The statistical methods are classified into two classes, deterministic and probabilistic models. Sub classes are probabilistic multi-variate and probabilistic single-variate group processing models. The review provides descriptions of the various models including their governing equations, as well as critiques, comparisons and identification of the types of data that are required for implementation. In some cases, a brief description of the methodology is provided where a decision support system was developed based on a specific statistical model. A companion paper β€_x009c_Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: physical modelsβ€_x009d_ helps to complete the picture of the work that has been done on the subject of water main deterioration and failure.
publications-4708	article	2001	Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo and Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo and Vespignani, Alessandro and Vespignani, Alessandro	Epidemic Spreading in Scale-Free Networks	Physical Review Letters	10.1103/physrevlett.86.3200	The Internet has a very complex connectivity recently modeled by the class of scale-free networks. This feature, which appears to be very efficient for a communications network, favors at the same time the spreading of computer viruses. We analyze real data from computer virus infections and find the average lifetime and persistence of viral strains on the Internet. We define a dynamical model for the spreading of infections on scale-free networks, finding the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This new epidemiological framework rationalizes data of computer viruses and could help in the understanding of other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.
publications-4709	article	2001	Craun, Gunther F. and Craun, Gunther F. and Calderon, Rebecca L. and Calderon, Rebecca L.	Waterborne disease Outbreaks Caused by Distribution System Deficiencies	Journal American Water Works Association	10.1002/j.1551-8833.2001.tb09287.x	PREVENTING CONTAMINATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM IS KEY TO REDUCING THE RISK OF WATERBORNE DISEASE OUTBREAKS.
publications-4710	article	2002	Lynam, Timothy and Lynam, Tim and Lynam, T. and Bousquet, FranΓ§ois and Bousquet, FranΓ§ois and Page, Christophe Le and Page, Christophe Le and Dβ€™Aquino, Patrick and d'Aquino, P. and D'Aquino, Patrick and Barreteau, Olivier and Barreteau, Olivier and Chinembiri, F. and Chinembiri, F. and Chinembiri, Frank and Mombeshora, B.G. and Mombeshora, Bright. and Mombeshora, B.G. and Mombeshora, Bright.	Adapting Science to Adaptive Managers: Spidergrams, Belief Models, and Multi-agent Systems Modeling	Conservation Ecology	10.5751/es-00320-050224	Two case studies are presented in which models were used as focal tools in problems associated with common-pool resource management in developing countries. In the first case study, based in Zimbabwe, Bayesian or Belief Networks were used in a project designed to enhance the adaptive management capacity of a community in a semiarid rangeland system. In the second case study, based in Senegal, multi-agent systems models were used in the context of role plays to communicate research findings to a community, as well as to explore policies for improved management of rangelands and arable lands over which herders and farmers were in conflict. The paper provides examples of the use of computer-based modeling with stakeholders who had limited experience with computer systems and numerical analyses. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the major lessons learned from the two independent case studies. Perhaps the most important lesson was the development of a common understanding of a problem through the development of the models with key stakeholders. A second key lesson was the need for research to be adaptive if it were to benefit adaptive managers. Both case study situations required significant changes in project orientation as stakeholder needs were defined. Both case studies recognized the key role that research, and particularly the development of models, played in bring different actors together to formulate improved management strategies or policies. Participatory engagement with stakeholders is a time-consuming and relatively costly process in which, in the case studies, most of the costs were born by the research projects themselves. We raise the concern that these activities may not be widely replicable if such costs are not reduced or born by the stakeholders themselves. (Resume d'auteur)