| publications-781 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2014 |
A. F. Van Loon , S. W. Ploum , J. Parajka , A. K. Fleig , E. Garnier , G. Laaha , H. A. J. Van Lanen |
Hydrological drought typology: temperature-related drought types and associated societal impacts |
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10.5194/hessd-11-10465-2014 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Natural Water Bodies |
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Abstract. For drought management and prediction, knowledge of causing factors and socio-economic impacts of hydrological droughts is crucial. Propagation of meteorological conditions in the hydrological cycle results in different hydrological drought types that require separate analysis. In addition to the existing hydrological drought typology, we here define two new drought types related to snow and ice. A snowmelt drought is a deficiency in the snowmelt discharge peak in spring in snow-influenced basins and a glaciermelt drought is a deficiency in the glaciermelt discharge peak in summer in glacierised basins. In 21 catchments in Austria and Norway we studied the meteorological conditions in the seasons preceding and at the time of snowmelt and glaciermelt drought events. Snowmelt droughts in Norway were mainly controlled by below-average winter precipitation, while in Austria both temperature and precipitation played a role. For glaciermelt droughts the effect of below-normal summer temperature was dominant, both in Austria and Norway. Subsequently, we investigated the impacts of temperature-related drought types (i.e. snowmelt and glaciermelt drought, but also cold and warm snow season drought and rain-to-snow-season drought). In historical archives and drought databases for the US and Europe many impacts were found that can be attributed to these temperature-related hydrological drought types, mainly in the sectors agriculture and electricity production (hydropower). However, drawing conclusions on the frequency of occurrence of different drought types from reported impacts is difficult, mainly because of reporting biases and the inevitably limited spatial and temporal scales of the information. This study shows that the combination of quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative analysis of impacts of temperature-related droughts is a promising approach to identify relevant drought types in other regions, especially if more data on drought impacts become available. |
282769 |
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| publications-782 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2013 |
A. F. Van Loon , H. A. J. Van Lanen |
Making the distinction between water scarcity and drought using an observation-modeling framework |
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10.1002/wrcr.20147 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Natural Water Bodies |
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Key Points Observation‐modeling framework is needed to discern water scarcity and drought. Anomaly analysis on observed and naturalized time series allows quantification. In a case study, water scarcity had a four times higher impact than drought. |
282769 |
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| publications-783 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2015 |
A.F. Van Loon , G. Laaha |
Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics |
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10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.059 |
Uncategorized |
Groundwater |
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No abstract available |
282769 |
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| publications-784 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2014 |
A. F. Van Loon , E. Tijdeman , N. Wanders , H. A. J. Van Lanen , A. J. Teuling , R. Uijlenhoet |
How climate seasonality modifies drought duration and deficit |
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10.1002/2013jd020383 |
Uncategorized |
Groundwater |
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Drought propagation through the terrestrial hydrological cycle is associated with a change in drought characteristics (duration and deficit), moving from precipitation via soil moisture to discharge. Here we investigate climate controls on drought propagation with a modeling experiment in 1271 virtual catchments that differ only in climate type. For these virtual catchments we studied the bivariate distribution of drought duration and standardized deficit for the variables precipitation, soil moisture, and discharge. We found that for meteorological drought (below‐normal precipitation), the bivariate distributions of drought characteristics have a linear shape in all climates and are thus not affected by seasonality in climate. Despite the linear shape of meteorological drought, soil moisture drought (below‐normal storage in the unsaturated zone) and hydrological drought (below‐normal water availability in aquifers, lakes, and/or streams) show strongly nonlinear shapes in drought characteristics in climates with a pronounced seasonal cycle in precipitation and/or temperature. These seasonality effects on drought propagation are found in monsoonal, savannah, and Mediterranean climate zones. In these regions, both soil moisture and discharge show deviating shapes in drought characteristics. The effect of seasonality on drought propagation is even stronger in cold seasonal climates (i.e., at high latitudes and altitudes), where snow accumulation during winter prevents recovery from summer hydrological drought, and deficit increases strongly with duration. This has important implications for water resources management in seasonal climates, which cannot solely rely on meteorology‐based indices as proxies for hydrological drought duration and deficit and need to include seasonal variation in both precipitation and temperature in hydrological drought forecasting. |
282769 |
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| publications-785 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2015 |
N. Wanders , H. A. J. Van Lanen |
Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models |
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10.5194/nhess-15-487-2015 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Groundwater |
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Abstract. Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971–2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures. |
282769 |
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| publications-786 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2015 |
N. Wanders , Y. Wada , H. A. J. Van Lanen |
Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime |
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10.5194/esd-6-1-2015 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Groundwater |
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Abstract. Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs) and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs), from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM) was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt) is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%), compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%). The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a substantial influence on future hydrological drought characteristics. |
282769 |
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| publications-787 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2013 |
G. Wong , H.A.J. van Lanen , P.J.J.F. Torfs |
Probabilistic analysis of hydrological drought characteristics using meteorological drought |
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10.1080/02626667.2012.753147 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Groundwater |
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No abstract available |
282769 |
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| publications-788 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2015 |
Julia Urquijo , Lucia De Stefano , Abel La Calle |
Drought and exceptional laws in Spain: the official water discourse |
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10.1007/s10784-015-9275-8 |
Data Management & Analytics |
Natural Water Bodies |
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No abstract available |
282769 |
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| publications-789 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2013 |
Kruse, S. & Seidl, I. |
Social capacities for drought risk management in Switzerland |
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10.5194/nhess-13-3429-2013 |
Simulation & Modeling |
Natural Water Bodies |
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Abstract. This paper analyses the social capacities for drought risk management from the perspective of national and regional water users and policy- and decision-makers in Switzerland. The analysis follows five dimensions of social capacities as prerequisites for drought risk management. Regarding information and knowledge (1), basic data is available, however not assembled for an integrated drought information system. As for technology and infrastructure (2), limited proactive capacities are available with the exception of a few of the drought-prone regions; in emergency response to drought however, provisional capacities are put together. Regarding organisation and management (3) most regions have enough personnel and effective cooperation in the case of acute and sporadic drought; long-term strategies though are largely missing. Economic resources (4) are sufficient if droughts remain rare. Finally, institutions and policies (5) are not sufficient for proactive drought risk management, but have been suitable in the drought of 2003. Starting points for building social capacities are first, to draw on the extensive experiences with the management of other natural hazards, second to build an integrated drought information system, including social and economic impacts, and third to improve the institutional framework through consistent regulations and coordination for proactive drought risk management. |
282769 |
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| publications-790 |
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE |
2013 |
Kruse, S. & Seidl, I. |
Social capacities for drought risk management in Switzerland |
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10.5194/nhess-13-3429-2013 |
Data Management & Analytics |
River Basins |
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Abstract. This paper analyses the social capacities for drought risk management from the perspective of national and regional water users and policy- and decision-makers in Switzerland. The analysis follows five dimensions of social capacities as prerequisites for drought risk management. Regarding information and knowledge (1), basic data is available, however not assembled for an integrated drought information system. As for technology and infrastructure (2), limited proactive capacities are available with the exception of a few of the drought-prone regions; in emergency response to drought however, provisional capacities are put together. Regarding organisation and management (3) most regions have enough personnel and effective cooperation in the case of acute and sporadic drought; long-term strategies though are largely missing. Economic resources (4) are sufficient if droughts remain rare. Finally, institutions and policies (5) are not sufficient for proactive drought risk management, but have been suitable in the drought of 2003. Starting points for building social capacities are first, to draw on the extensive experiences with the management of other natural hazards, second to build an integrated drought information system, including social and economic impacts, and third to improve the institutional framework through consistent regulations and coordination for proactive drought risk management. |
282769 |
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