Scientific Results

This catalogue is obtained by conducting a systematic literature review of scientific studies and reviews related to monitoring, forecasting, and simulating the inland water cycle. The analysis maps scientific expertise across research groups and classifies findings by the type of inland water studied, application focus, and geographical scope. A gap analysis will identify missing research areas and assess their relevance to policymaking.

ID â–² Type Year Authors Title Venue/Journal DOI Research type Water System Technical Focus Abstract Link with Projects Link with Tools Related policies ID
publications-4041 article 2003 BΓ©cu, Nicolas and Becu, Nicolas and Perez, Pascal and Perez, Pascal and Walker, Andrew and Walker, Andrew and Barreteau, Olivier and Barreteau, Olivier and Page, Christophe Le and Page, C. Le Agent based simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand: Description of the CATCHSCAPE model Ecological Modelling 10.1016/s0304-3800(03)00236-9
publications-4042 article 2015 Oliker, Nurit and Oliker, Nurit and Ostfeld, Avi and Ostfeld, Avi Network hydraulics inclusion in water quality event detection using multiple sensor stations data. Water Research 10.1016/j.watres.2015.04.036
publications-4043 article 2015 Liu, Shuming and Liu, Shuming and Smith, Kate and Smith, Kate and Han, Ce and Che, Han A multivariate based event detection method and performance comparison with two baseline methods. Water Research 10.1016/j.watres.2015.05.013
publications-4044 article 2015 Klassert, Christian and Klassert, Christian and Sigel, Katja and Sigel, Katja and Gawel, Erik and Gawel, Erik and Klauer, Bernd and Klauer, Bernd and Ghisi, Enedir and Ghisi, Enedir Modeling Residential Water Consumption in Amman: The Role of Intermittency, Storage, and Pricing for Piped and Tanker Water Water 10.3390/w7073643 Jordan faces an archetypal combination of high water scarcity, with a per capita water availability of around 150 m 3 per year significantly below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 m 3 , and strong population growth, especially due to the Syrian refugee crisis. A transition to more sustainable water consumption patterns will likely require Jordan's water authorities to rely more strongly on water demand management in the future. We conduct a case study of the effects of pricing policies, using an agent-based model of household water consumption in Jordan's capital Amman, in order to analyze the distribution of burdens imposed by demand-side policies across society. Amman's households face highly intermittent piped water supply, leading them to supplement it with water from storage tanks and informal private tanker operators. Using a detailed data set of the distribution of supply durations across Amman, our model can derive the demand for additional tanker water. We find that integrating these different supply sources into our model causes demand-side policies to have strongly heterogeneous effects across districts and income groups. This highlights the importance of a disaggregated perspective on water policy impacts in order to identify and potentially mitigate excessive burdens.
publications-4045 article 2000 YΓΌcemen, M. Semih and Selcuk, A. S. and Selcuk, A. Sevtap and YΓΌcemen, M. Semih and Yucemen, M. S. and YΓΌcemen, M. Semih and YΓΌcemen, M. Semih Reliability of lifeline networks with multiple sources under seismic hazard Natural Hazards 10.1023/a:1008146906319 Lifelines are networks extending spatiallyover large areas. Transportation systems, pipelines,communication and power transmission systems areexamples of lifelines. The performance of a lifelineafter a major earthquake is particularly vital for acommunity because of the emergency services that areusually required after such events. Performancemeasures are usually expressed in terms of quantitiesthat are assessed based on statistical andprobabilistic methodologies. The major performancemeasure is the probability of reaching from aspecified point to another one successfully after acatastrophic event, such as an earthquake. Evaluationof this performance measure requires a seismic hazardmethodology, capacity determination techniques andnetwork reliability assessment methods. By combiningthese three aspects in one model, it is possible tocalculate the reliability of any lifeline system underseismic danger. The aim of this paper is to present aprobabilistic model for the evaluation of the seismicreliability of lifeline networks having multiplesources. The seismic reliability of a waterdistribution system located in Bursa, Turkey isassessed in order to show the implementation of theproposed model. The numerical calculations are carriedout by the LIFEPACK software, which is developed forthis purpose.
publications-4046 article 2009 Ormerod, Paul and Ormerod, Paul and Rosewell, Bridget and Rosewell, Bridget Validation and Verification of Agent-Based Models in the Social Sciences 10.1007/978-3-642-01109-2_10 This paper considers some of the difficulties in establishing verificaction and validation of agent based models. The fact that most ABMs are solved by simulation rather than analytically blurs the distinction between validation and verification. We suggest that a clear description of the phenomena to be explained by the model and testing for the simplest possible realistic agent rules of behaviour are key to the successful validation of ABMs and will provide the strongest base for enabling model comparison and acceptance. In particular, the empirical evidence that in general agents act intuitively rather than rationally is now strong. This implies that models which assign high levels of cognition to their agents require particularly strong justification if they are to be considered valid.
publications-4047 article 2015 Eliades, Demetrios G. and Stavrou, Demetris and Vrachimis, Stelios G. and Panayiotou, Christos G. and Polycarpou, Marios M. Contamination Event Detection Using Multi-level Thresholds Procedia Engineering 10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.1003 Abstract To monitor water quality, utilities typically employ periodic manual sampling. However, when a contamination event occurs, it may require days before it is detected. To enhance monitoring, utilities employ sensors which monitor various water quality parameters. A common approach is the use of chlorine sensors for monitoring chlorine residuals at different locations in the network, in order to determine whether a contamination event has occurred. Unfortunately, due to significant variability in water demands, as well as the effect of hydraulic and quality control actions, the disinfectant residual at the sensor location may fluctuate significantly in time, and therefore, model-free event detection algorithms may not be able to detect certain contamination events, or they may cause false alarms. This work extends the work in by proposing a model-based method for contamination event detection using real-time concentration lower-bound estimations as well as multi-level thresholds, for enhancing detection and reducing detection delay while minimizing false positive alarms.
publications-4048 article 2015 Schade, Charles P. and Schade, Charles P. and Wright, Nasandra and Wright, Nasandra and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rahul and Latif, David A. and Latif, David A. and Jha, Ayan and Jha, Ayan and Robinson, John C. and Robinson, John Self-reported household impacts of large-scale chemical contamination of the public water supply, Charleston, West Virginia, USA. PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0126744 A January 2014 industrial accident contaminated the public water supply of approximately 300,000 homes in and near Charleston, West Virginia (USA) with low levels of a strongly-smelling substance consisting principally of 4-methylcyclohexane methanol (MCHM). The ensuing state of emergency closed schools and businesses. Hundreds of people sought medical care for symptoms they related to the incident. We surveyed 498 households by telephone to assess the episode’s health and economic impact as well as public perception of risk communication by responsible officials. Thirty two percent of households (159/498) reported someone with illness believed to be related to the chemical spill, chiefly dermatological or gastrointestinal symptoms. Respondents experienced more frequent symptoms of psychological distress during and within 30 days of the emergency than 90 days later. Sixty-seven respondent households (13\%) had someone miss work because of the crisis, missing a median of 3 days of work. Of 443 households reporting extra expenses due to the crisis, 46\% spent less than $100, while 10\% spent over $500 (estimated average about $206). More than 80\% (401/485) households learned of the spill the same day it occurred. More than 2/3 of households complied fully with β€_x009c_do not useβ€_x009d_ orders that were issued; only 8\% reported drinking water against advice. Household assessments of official communications varied by source, with local officials receiving an average β€_x009c_Bβ€_x009d_ rating, whereas some federal and water company communication received a β€_x009c_Dβ€_x009d_ grade. More than 90\% of households obtained safe water from distribution centers or stores during the emergency. We conclude that the spill had major economic impact with substantial numbers of individuals reporting incident-related illnesses and psychological distress. Authorities were successful supplying emergency drinking water, but less so with risk communication.
publications-4049 article 2007 Nichita, Constantin and Nichita, Constantin and Oprea, Mihaela and Oprea, Mihaela An agent-based model for water quality control Computer-aided chemical engineering 10.1016/s1570-7946(07)80227-6
publications-4050 article 2005 Apostolakis, G. and Apostolakis, George and Lemon, Douglas M. and Lemon, Douglas M. A screening methodology for the identification and ranking of infrastructure vulnerabilities due to terrorism. Risk Analysis 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00595.x The extreme importance of critical infrastructures to modern society is widely recognized. These infrastructures are complex and interdependent. Protecting the critical infrastructures from terrorism presents an enormous challenge. Recognizing that society cannot afford the costs associated with absolute protection, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities in these infrastructures. This article presents a methodology for the identification and prioritization of vulnerabilities in infrastructures. We model the infrastructures as interconnected digraphs and employ graph theory to identify the candidate vulnerable scenarios. These scenarios are screened for the susceptibility of their elements to a terrorist attack, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities is produced. The prioritization methodology is based on multiattribute utility theory. The impact of losing infrastructure services is evaluated using a value tree that reflects the perceptions and values of the decisionmaker and the relevant stakeholders. These results, which are conditional on a specified threat, are provided to the decisionmaker for use in risk management. The methodology is illustrated through the presentation of a portion of the analysis conducted on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.