ID:
publications-4659
Type:
article
Year:
1998
Authors:
Billings, R. Bruce and Billings, R. Bruce and Agthe, Donald E. and Agthe, Donald E.
Title:
STATE-SPACE VERSUS MULTIPLE REGRESSION FOR FORECASTING URBAN WATER DEMAND
Venue/Journal:
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
DOI:
10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(1998)124:2(113)
Research type:
Water System:
Technical Focus:
Abstract:
State-space and multiple regression methods were compared with each other and with simple monthly averages for the accuracy of their short-term forecasts of urban water demand. Seven sets of 24 monthly forecasts of water demand were computed. Each set is based on a different 7-year historic period, using a total of 15 years of monthly data. Based on a variety of measures of forecast error, the state-space models exhibited less bias than the other models, whereas the size of a typical forecast error was about the same for state-space and simple monthly averages. Forecast errors showed considerable variability within both state-space and multiple regression. The mean absolute forecast error ranged from 7.4 to 14.8\% for multiple regression, and from 3.6 to 13.1\% for state-space. For this sample data, the multiple regression model forecasts were least accurate and also had larger biases than the other methods.
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