ID:
publications-4646
Type:
article
Year:
1981
Authors:
Hansen, Roger D. and Hansen, Roger D. and Narayanan, Rangesan and Narayanan, Rangesan and Narayanan, Rangesan
Title:
A MONTHLY TIME SERIES MODEL OF MUNICIPAL WATER DEMAND
Venue/Journal:
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
DOI:
10.1111/j.1752-1688.1981.tb01263.x
Research type:
Water System:
Technical Focus:
Abstract:
A multivariate time series model is formulated to study monthly variations in municipal water demand. The left hand side variable in the multivariate regression model is municipal water demand (gallons per connection per day) and the right hand side contains (explanatory) variables which include price (constant dollars), average temperature, total precipitation, and percentage of daylight hours. The application of the regression model to Salt Lake City Water Department data produced a high multiple correlation coefficient and F-statistic. The regression coefficients for the right hand side variables all have the appropriate sign. In an ex post forecast, the model accurately predicts monthly variations in municipal water demand. The proposed monthly multivariate model is not only found useful for forecasting water demand, but also useful for predicting and studying the impact of nonstructural management decisions such as the effect of price changes, peak load pricing methods, and other water conservation programs.
Link with Projects:
Link with Tools:
Related policies:
ID:
