ID:
publications-3837
Type:
article
Year:
1991
Authors:
Rogers, George O. and Rogers, George O. and Sorensen, John H. and Sorensen, John H.
Title:
Diffusion of Emergency Warning: Comparing Empirical and Simulation Results
Venue/Journal:
DOI:
10.1007/978-1-4899-0730-1_14
Research type:
Water System:
Technical Focus:
Abstract:
As officials consider emergency warning systems to alert the public to potential danger in areas surrounding hazardous facilities, the issue of warning system effectiveness is of critical importance. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an analysis on the timing of warning system information dissemination including the alert of the public and delivery of a warning message. A general model of the diffusion of emergency warning is specified as a logistic function. Alternative warning systems are characterized in terms of the parameters of the model, which generally constrain the diffusion process to account for judged maximum penetration of each system for various locations and likelihood of the public’s being in those places by time of day. The results indicate that either telephone ring-down warning systems or tone-alert radio systems combined with sirens provide the most effective warning system under conditions of either very rapid onset, close proximity or both. These results indicate that single technology system provide adequate warning effectiveness when available warning time (after detection and the decision to warn) extends to as much as an hour. Moreover, telephone ring-down systems provide similar coverage at approximately 30 minutes of available public warning time.
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