ID:
publications-1547
Type:
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLE
Year:
2016
Authors:
M. Kummu , J. H. A. Guillaume , H. de Moel , S. Eisner , M. Flörke , M. Porkka , S. Siebert , T. I. E. Veldkamp , P. J. Ward
Title:
The world’s road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability
Venue/Journal:
DOI:
10.1038/srep38495
Research type:
Predictive Analytics
Water System:
River Basins
Technical Focus:
Abstract:
AbstractWater scarcity is a rapidly growing concern around the globe, but little is known about how it has developed over time. This study provides a first assessment of continuous sub-national trajectories of blue water consumption, renewable freshwater availability, and water scarcity for the entire 20th century. Water scarcity is analysed using the fundamental concepts of shortage (impacts due to low availability per capita) and stress (impacts due to high consumption relative to availability) which indicate difficulties in satisfying the needs of a population and overuse of resources respectively. While water consumption increased fourfold within the study period, the population under water scarcity increased from 0.24 billion (14% of global population) in the 1900s to 3.8 billion (58%) in the 2000s. Nearly all sub-national trajectories show an increasing trend in water scarcity. The concept of scarcity trajectory archetypes and shapes is introduced to characterize the historical development of water scarcity and suggest measures for alleviating water scarcity and increasing sustainability. Linking the scarcity trajectories to other datasets may help further deepen understanding of how trajectories relate to historical and future drivers, and hence help tackle these evolving challenges.
Link with Projects:
603608
Link with Tools:
Related policies:
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